Dolar 9.90'ı geçti: Tarihi rekor kırıldı
Dün güne 9.74 liradan başlayan dolar, sabah saatlerinde önce 9.80'i aştı. Öğleden sonra ise ABD'de enflasyonun beklentileri aşmasıyla 9.87'yi aşarak yeni tarihi zirvesini gördü. Sabah saatlerinde 9.97 lirayı aşarak yeni tarihi zirvesini gördü. Dolar an itibarıyla 9,93 Türk Lirası oldu.
Enflasyonun beklentileri aşmasıyla Fed'in varlık alımlarında azaltıma ve faiz indirimine gideceği tarihe yönelik beklentiler daha yakın bir zaman çekildi. Bu da doların güçlenmesine yol açtı.
Bu yükselişte Merkez Bankası'ndan yeni bir faiz indirimi beklenmesi de etkili oluyor. Merkez Bankası Para Politikası Kurulu (PPK) ekim ayı toplantısında politika faizini yüzde 18'den yüzde 16'ye düşürdü.
TÜİK ekim ayında yıllık enflasyonun yüzde 19.89 olduğunu açıkladı. Son indirim kararıyla beraber politika faiziyle enflasyon arasındaki makas daha da açılmış oldu.
100 BAZ PUAN İNDİRİM BEKLENTİSİ
Ancak Merkez'den kasım toplantısında da faiz indirimi bekleniyor. JPMorgan ekim ayı enflasyon verisinin kendilerini kasım ayında TCMB'den 100 baz puan faiz indirimi beklentilerinden daha emin hale getirdiğini belirtti.
Haftaya yapılacak PPK toplantısında 100 baz puanlık bir indirim beklediklerini belirten Deutsche Bank ekonomistleri, 16 Aralık'ta 100 baz puanlık bir indirim daha yapılmasını beklediklerini açıkladı.
Bu beklenti TL'deki değer kaybının hızlanmasına yol açtı.
21 Ekim'deki faiz indiriminden önce dolar 9.26 lira seviyesindeydi. Yani faiz kararının ardından dolar/TL 21 günde yüzde 7 yükseldi.
Bugün Merkez Bankası eylül ayı ödemeler dengesi istatistiklerini yayımladı. Buna göre eylülde 1.65 milyar dolar cari fazla verildi. Bu verinin ilk anda kurda önemli bir etkisi görülmedi.
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