Altın fiyatları Fed ile hamlesini yapacak
Altın fiyatları rekor seviyelerden düşüşüne devam ediyor. Ons altın dün 1.963 dolara, gram altın ise 1.198 liraya geriledi. Piyasalardaki düşüş sonrası Kapalıçarşı'da gram, çeyrek, 22 ayar bilezik ve Cumhuriyet altını yatırımcılar tarafından en çok araştırılan konular arasına girdi. Altın düşecek mi, yükselecek mi sorusu da gündemdeki sıcaklığını korurken analistler Ekim, Kasım, Aralık aylarını işaret ederek altın için rekor rakamı duyurdu.
Altın fiyatları küresel bankacılık sisteminde yaşanan endişelerin ardından güvenli liman olarak tercih edilmesinin ile hızlı yükselişlerin etkisindeydi. Ancak Rusya'nın Ukrayna'yı işgalinden bu yana ilk kez 2.000 doları aşan altın fiyatları yeniden düşüşe geçti. Bankacılık krizinin Silicon Valley Bank’ın satın alınması ve başka bankaların da yüksek risk altında olmadığı izleniminin egemen olması ve bir bankacılık krizinin ekonomiyi resesyona sürükleyebileceğine dair korkuların giderek azalması, yatırımcıları güvenli liman olarak gördükleri altına yönelimini şimdilik durdurarak fiyatların aşağı çekilmesine neden oldu. Ons altın fiyatı dün 1.963 dolara kadar geriledi. Ons altından destek bularak 1.250 TL’ye yaklaşıp rekor seviyeleri gören gram altın ise dün 1.200 TL’nin altına geldi. Fiyatlar bugün de kırmızı bölgede yer alırken şu sıralar ons altın 1.977 dolardan, altının gram fiyatı da 1.207 liradan değerleniyor.
FED’İN FAİZ KARARI NETLEŞİYOR
ABD Merkez Bankası'nın (Fed) sene sonuna kadar 100 baz puan faiz indirimi yapacağına yönelik beklentiler güç kaybetmeye devam ederken, para piyasalarındaki fiyatlamalarda bankanın mayısta yüzde 40 ihtimalle 25 baz puan faiz arttırılması ve yüzde 60 ihtimalle politika faizinin sabit tutulması bekleniyor.
“ALTIN YÜKSELİŞİNE DEVAM EDEBİLİR”
Heraeus Kıymetli Metaller şirketi tarafından altın fiyatlarına ilişkin yapılan değerlendirmede, yakın vadede altının yeni zirveleri kırmak için mücadele edebileceği belirtildi. Değerlendirmede, “Ancak ABD ekonomisi resesyona girdiğinde Fed’in faiz indirimlerinin gelmesiyle, tahvil getirilerinin düşmesi muhtemel. Bu durumda altın fiyatı yükselişine devam edebilir” ifadeleri kullanıldı.
Reuters teknik analisti Wang Tao, altının ikinci çeyrekte 2.070 dolardaki direnci kırıp 2.148 dolara yükselebileceğini söylüyor.
“FED POLİTİKASI ALTINI YILIN İLERLEYEN ZAMANLARINDA DESTEKLEYECEK”
ING’deki ekonomistler ise fiyatlarda kısa vadeli bir gerileme öngörürken, sarı metalin yılın ikinci yarısında güçlenmesini bekliyor. Bu doğrultuda ekonomistler, şu değerlendirmeyi yapıyor:
“Fed politikasının orta vadede altın için anahtar olması muhtemel. Mayıs ayında, Fed fon aralığını yüzde 5-5,25’te bırakacak olan 25 baz puanlık son bir artış öngörüyoruz. Faiz indirimleri muhtemelen 2023’ün 2. yarısının teması olacak. Fed’in dördüncü çeyrekte faiz oranını 75 baz puan indireceğini tahmin ediyoruz. Ayrıca, reel getirilerin yılın ilerleyen zamanlarında daha düşük politika faizlerini takip etmesini bekliyoruz. Bu da altın fiyatı için destekleyici olacaktır.”Ekonomistler altın fiyatlarının dördüncü çeyrekte ortalama 2.000 dolar olmasını bekliyor. Bununla ilgili varsayımlarda ekonomistler, bankacılık sektöründe daha fazla bozulma beklemezken ve Fed’in bu yılın sonlarına doğru faiz indirimlerine başlayacağını tahmin ediyor.
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